HJS Akatemia 1–4 P-Iirot: Result & Stats

HJS Akatemia

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

P-Iirot

E. Pellikka 60'

O. Ohvo 73'

L. Laakso 70'

E. Ahde 42'

J. Whiting 30'

6/17/2023

Kakkonen - Lohko B · Group B - 8Kaurialan kenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

HJS Akatemia52%

×Draw21%

P-Iirot26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HJS AkatemiaExpected goals in this matchP-Iirot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.41

HJS Akatemia

2.05

P-Iirot

1.41

HJS Akatemia creates 45% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 57 away

2.08

creates per match

1.25

1.56

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

HJS Akatemia

2.08

P-Iirot

1.25

allows per match

HJS Akatemia

1.56

P-Iirot

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HJS Akatemia+0.00on par

P-Iirot+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HJS Akatemia ↓

P-Iirot →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

HJS Akatemia or draw

74%

HJS Akatemia or P-Iirot

79%

Draw or P-Iirot

48%

Winning margin

HJS Akatemia wins by 2+

31%

P-Iirot wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

HJS Akatemia 1+ goals

87%

HJS Akatemia 2+ goals

61%

HJS Akatemia 3+ goals

33%

P-Iirot 1+ goals

76%

P-Iirot 2+ goals

41%

P-Iirot 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

HJS Akatemia (draw refunded)

66%

P-Iirot (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HJS Akatemia at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.56 · 79 matches

P-Iirot away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.02 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HJS Akatemia attack 2.08 + P-Iirot defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.05

P-Iirot attack 1.25 + HJS Akatemia defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

HJS Akatemia scores more

52%

level

21%

P-Iirot scores more

26%

HJS Akatemia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "HJS Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

30'

42'

49'

51'

54'

60'

65'

65'

S. Keskitalo← I. Nshizirungu

65'

T. Silvennoinen← A. Virtanen

65'

O. Ohvo← E. Ahde

70'

L. Laakso

72'

O. Balde

73'

O. Ohvo

78'

O. Luoma← S. Paakkanen

78'

V. Lindberg← E. Pellikka

79'

O. Ohvo← M. Jalkanen

82'

M. Jokinen← J. Kyöstilä

83'

85'

85'

90+1'

HJS

P-Iirot

12

3

11

4

20

▼

Aalto

17

⚽

▼

Whiting

6

⚽

Laakso

18

⚽

▼

Ahde

10

▼

Jalkanen

30

▼

Virtanen

27

Babb

1

Immonen

8

▼

11

5

26

16

⚽

▼

Pellikka

19

Thusberg

10

▼

Lassoued

18

Balde

13

▼

Paakkanen

24

▼

Nshizirun

Manager: T. Silvennoinen

65'▲S. Bos←▼H. Lassoued

65'▲S. Keskitalo←▼I. Nshizirungu

78'▲O. Luoma←▼S. Paakkanen

78'▲V. Lindberg←▼E. Pellikka

82'▲M. Jokinen←▼J. Kyöstilä

HJS Akatemia substitutes

9Bos14Keskitalo3Luoma15Lindberg29Jokinen20Orava

Manager: J. Grasso

65'▲T. Silvennoinen←▼A. Virtanen

65'▲O. Ohvo←▼E. Ahde

79'▲O. Ohvo←▼M. Jalkanen

85'▲R. Ahonen←▼J. Aalto

85'▲S. Tähkä←▼J. Whiting

P-Iirot substitutes

22Silvennoinen23Ohvo21Ohvo7Ahonen9Tähkä1Lainio31Honkaniemi