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HJK W vs Åland United W — Kansallinen Liiga 2020

HJK W
HJK W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Åland United W
Åland United W
9/11/2022Kansallinen LiigaKansallinen Liiga · Championship Round - 1Bolt Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

HJK W49%
×Draw22%
Åland United W30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HJK W
2.00
Åland United W
1.52

HJK W creates 32% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 73 away

creates per match

HJK W
2.57
Åland United W
2.23

allows per match

HJK W
0.82
Åland United W
1.44

finishing

HJK W+0.00on par
Åland United W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HJK W ↓

Åland United W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

HJK W or draw
70%
HJK W or Åland United W
78%
Draw or Åland United W
51%

Winning margin

HJK W wins by 2+
28%
Åland United W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

HJK W 1+ goals
86%
HJK W 2+ goals
59%
HJK W 3+ goals
32%
Åland United W 1+ goals
78%
Åland United W 2+ goals
45%
Åland United W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

HJK W (draw refunded)
62%
Åland United W (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HJK W at home — creates 2.57, concedes 0.82 · 74 matches

Åland United W away — creates 2.23, concedes 1.44 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HJK W attack 2.57 + Åland United W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 2.00

Åland United W attack 2.23 + HJK W defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

HJK W scores more
49%
level
22%
Åland United W scores more
30%

HJK W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "HJK W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kansallinen Liiga: HJK W 1–1 Åland United W

HJK W and Åland United W drew 1-1 in Kansallinen Liiga on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Bolt Arena in Helsinki.