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HJK Helsinki vs Mariehamn — Suomen Cup 2018

HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Mariehamn
Mariehamn
2/15/2020Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Group Stage - 5Tali halli tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

HJK Helsinki44%
×Draw23%
Mariehamn34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HJK Helsinki
1.83
Mariehamn
1.59

HJK Helsinki creates 15% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 25 away

creates per match

HJK Helsinki
2.63
Mariehamn
2.40

allows per match

HJK Helsinki
0.79
Mariehamn
1.04

finishing

HJK Helsinki+0.00on par
Mariehamn+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HJK Helsinki ↓

Mariehamn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

HJK Helsinki or draw
66%
HJK Helsinki or Mariehamn
77%
Draw or Mariehamn
56%

Winning margin

HJK Helsinki wins by 2+
23%
Mariehamn wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

HJK Helsinki 1+ goals
84%
HJK Helsinki 2+ goals
54%
HJK Helsinki 3+ goals
28%
Mariehamn 1+ goals
80%
Mariehamn 2+ goals
47%
Mariehamn 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

HJK Helsinki (draw refunded)
56%
Mariehamn (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HJK Helsinki at home — creates 2.63, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

Mariehamn away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HJK Helsinki attack 2.63 + Mariehamn defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.83

Mariehamn attack 2.40 + HJK Helsinki defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

HJK Helsinki scores more
44%
level
23%
Mariehamn scores more
34%

HJK Helsinki at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "HJK Helsinki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HJK Helsinki vs Mariehamn

HJK Helsinki beat Mariehamn 3-1 in Suomen Cup on February 15, 2020.

The match was played at Tali halli tekonurmi in Helsinki.