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HJK Helsinki vs Lahti — Veikkausliiga 2018

HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Lahti
Lahti
8/10/2019VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 19Telia 5G -areena (Helsinki)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

HJK Helsinki57%
×Draw23%
Lahti20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HJK Helsinki
1.77
Lahti
0.94

HJK Helsinki creates 88% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 101 away

creates per match

HJK Helsinki
1.97
Lahti
0.93

allows per match

HJK Helsinki
0.95
Lahti
1.56

finishing

HJK Helsinki+0.00on par
Lahti+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HJK Helsinki ↓

Lahti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

HJK Helsinki or draw
80%
HJK Helsinki or Lahti
77%
Draw or Lahti
43%

Winning margin

HJK Helsinki wins by 2+
32%
Lahti wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

HJK Helsinki 1+ goals
83%
HJK Helsinki 2+ goals
53%
HJK Helsinki 3+ goals
26%
Lahti 1+ goals
61%
Lahti 2+ goals
24%
Lahti 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

HJK Helsinki (draw refunded)
74%
Lahti (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HJK Helsinki at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.95 · 121 matches

Lahti away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.56 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HJK Helsinki attack 1.97 + Lahti defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.77

Lahti attack 0.93 + HJK Helsinki defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

HJK Helsinki scores more
57%
level
23%
Lahti scores more
20%

HJK Helsinki at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "HJK Helsinki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veikkausliiga: HJK Helsinki 4–0 Lahti

HJK Helsinki beat Lahti 4-0 in Veikkausliiga on August 10, 2019.

The match was played at Telia 5G -areena (Helsinki).