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HJK Helsinki vs Ilves — Veikkausliiga 2018

HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ilves
Ilves
9/28/2024VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Championship Round - 3Bolt Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

HJK Helsinki40%
×Draw24%
Ilves37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HJK Helsinki
1.63
Ilves
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

HJK Helsinki
1.99
Ilves
1.98

allows per match

HJK Helsinki
1.15
Ilves
1.27

finishing

HJK Helsinki+0.21scores more
Ilves-0.41scores less

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HJK Helsinki ↓

Ilves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

HJK Helsinki or draw
63%
HJK Helsinki or Ilves
76%
Draw or Ilves
60%

Winning margin

HJK Helsinki wins by 2+
20%
Ilves wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

HJK Helsinki 1+ goals
80%
HJK Helsinki 2+ goals
48%
HJK Helsinki 3+ goals
22%
Ilves 1+ goals
79%
Ilves 2+ goals
46%
Ilves 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

HJK Helsinki (draw refunded)
52%
Ilves (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HJK Helsinki at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.15 · 5 matches

Ilves away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.27 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HJK Helsinki attack 1.99 + Ilves defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.63

Ilves attack 1.98 + HJK Helsinki defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

HJK Helsinki scores more
40%
level
24%
Ilves scores more
37%

HJK Helsinki at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "HJK Helsinki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HJK Helsinki vs Ilves

Ilves beat HJK Helsinki 1-0 in Veikkausliiga on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Bolt Arena in Helsinki.