Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

HJK Helsinki vs Gnistan — Friendlies Clubs 2026

HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki
FT
4 – 0
Gnistan
Gnistan
6/6/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Bolt Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

HJK Helsinki68%
×Draw19%
Gnistan13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HJK Helsinki
2.19
Gnistan
0.85

HJK Helsinki creates 158% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

creates per match

HJK Helsinki
2.29
Gnistan
1.00

allows per match

HJK Helsinki
0.71
Gnistan
2.09

finishing

HJK Helsinki+0.00on par
Gnistan+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HJK Helsinki ↓

Gnistan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

HJK Helsinki or draw
87%
HJK Helsinki or Gnistan
81%
Draw or Gnistan
32%

Winning margin

HJK Helsinki wins by 2+
44%
Gnistan wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

HJK Helsinki 1+ goals
89%
HJK Helsinki 2+ goals
64%
HJK Helsinki 3+ goals
37%
Gnistan 1+ goals
57%
Gnistan 2+ goals
21%
Gnistan 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

HJK Helsinki (draw refunded)
84%
Gnistan (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HJK Helsinki at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Gnistan away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HJK Helsinki attack 2.29 + Gnistan defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.19

Gnistan attack 1.00 + HJK Helsinki defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

HJK Helsinki scores more
68%
level
19%
Gnistan scores more
13%

HJK Helsinki at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "HJK Helsinki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HJK Helsinki vs Gnistan

HJK Helsinki beat Gnistan 4-0 in Friendlies Clubs on June 6, 2020.

The match was played at Bolt Arena in Helsinki.