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Hirnyk vs Zorya Luhansk — Premier League 2026

Hirnyk
Hirnyk
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
R. Kapič 50'
4/8/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Hirnyk39%
×Draw23%
Zorya Luhansk38%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hirnyk
1.63
Zorya Luhansk
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 15 away

creates per match

Hirnyk
1.41
Zorya Luhansk
1.39

allows per match

Hirnyk
1.81
Zorya Luhansk
1.85

finishing

Hirnyk+0.84scores more
Zorya Luhansk+0.28scores more

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hirnyk ↓

Zorya Luhansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Hirnyk or draw
62%
Hirnyk or Zorya Luhansk
77%
Draw or Zorya Luhansk
61%

Winning margin

Hirnyk wins by 2+
19%
Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Hirnyk 1+ goals
80%
Hirnyk 2+ goals
48%
Hirnyk 3+ goals
22%
Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals
80%
Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals
47%
Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Hirnyk (draw refunded)
51%
Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hirnyk at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.81 · 8 matches

Zorya Luhansk away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.85 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hirnyk attack 1.41 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.63

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.39 + Hirnyk defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hirnyk scores more
39%
level
23%
Zorya Luhansk scores more
38%

Hirnyk at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hirnyk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
Mikita Tatarkov
42'
Denys Antyukh
44'
Klim Prykhodko
46'
A. Ponedelnik← A. Mykytyshyn
50'
R. Kapič↳ M. Tatarkov
64'
Maksym Zaderaka
64'
Y. Shakhov← K. Dryshlyuk
64'
V. Pogorilyi← D. Myshnov
70'
R. Vantukh← D. Antyukh
71'
M. Lunev← M. Tatarkov
85'
Yevhen Banada
85'
O. Khakhlyov← N. Rusyn
85'
P. Polehenko← S. Buletsa
88'
T. Stetskov← R. Kapič
90+5'
Y. Opanasenko← M. Zaderaka

Possession

52%Hirnyk

Shots

5Hirnyk

Statistics

HirnykZorya
Overview
52%Possession48%
5Total Shots12
3Corners4
8Fouls20
Shots
5Total Shots12
5On Target7
Passing
52%Possession48%
Goalkeeping
7Saves4
Discipline
8Fouls20
4Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Hirnyk vs Zorya Luhansk

Hirnyk beat Zorya Luhansk 1-0 in Premier League on April 8, 2023.

Goals: R. Kapič (50').

Hirnyk controlled possession (52%) and registered 5 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva in Krivoj Rog.