Hirnyk 0–1 Dynamo Kyiv: Result & Stats

Hirnyk

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dynamo Kyiv

D. Popov 48'

5/8/2023

Premier League · Round 25Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Hirnyk17%

×Draw20%

Dynamo Kyiv62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HirnykExpected goals in this matchDynamo Kyiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

2.15

Hirnyk

1.04

Dynamo Kyiv

2.15

Dynamo Kyiv creates 107% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

1.41

creates per match

2.49

1.81

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Hirnyk

1.41

Dynamo Kyiv

2.49

allows per match

Hirnyk

1.81

Dynamo Kyiv

0.67

+0.84scores more than expected

finishing

+0.51scores more than expected

finishing

Hirnyk+0.84scores more

Dynamo Kyiv+0.51scores more

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hirnyk ↓

Dynamo Kyiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Hirnyk or draw

38%

Hirnyk or Dynamo Kyiv

80%

Draw or Dynamo Kyiv

83%

Winning margin

Hirnyk wins by 2+

6%

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Hirnyk 1+ goals

65%

Hirnyk 2+ goals

28%

Hirnyk 3+ goals

9%

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals

88%

Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals

63%

Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Hirnyk (draw refunded)

22%

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hirnyk at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.81 · 8 matches

Dynamo Kyiv away — creates 2.49, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hirnyk attack 1.41 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.04

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.49 + Hirnyk defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Hirnyk scores more

17%

level

20%

Dynamo Kyiv scores more

62%

Dynamo Kyiv at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

Dmytro Khomchenovskyi

45+2'

Oleksandr Andriyevskyi

46'

N. Voloshyn← V. Kabaev

48'

D. Popov↳ O. Andrievskyi

55'

R. Debelko← M. Zaderaka

65'

Oleksandr Tymchyk

72'

D. Sosah← A. Mykytyshyn

72'

K. Parris← Benito

72'

E. Ramírez← V. Vanat

74'

Kaheem Parris

78'

K. Prykhodko← M. Tatarkov

80'

Roman Debelko

82'

A. Tsarenko← V. Buyalskyi

90+4'

Serhiy Sydorchuk

90+2'

Denys Popov

90'

J. Lonwijk← O. Andrievskyi

Possession

Shots

Statistics

HirnykDynamo

Overview

49%Possession51%

4Total Shots2

4Corners1

5Fouls8

Shots

4Total Shots2

3Off Target1

Passing

49%Possession51%

Discipline

5Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1