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Hillerød vs Kolding IF — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Hillerød
Hillerød
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kolding IF
Kolding IF
11/20/20212nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Secma Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Hillerød36%
×Draw26%
Kolding IF39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hillerød
1.32
Kolding IF
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 33 away

creates per match

Hillerød
1.80
Kolding IF
1.73

allows per match

Hillerød
1.05
Kolding IF
0.85

finishing

Hillerød+0.00on par
Kolding IF+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hillerød ↓

Kolding IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Hillerød or draw
61%
Hillerød or Kolding IF
74%
Draw or Kolding IF
64%

Winning margin

Hillerød wins by 2+
16%
Kolding IF wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Hillerød 1+ goals
73%
Hillerød 2+ goals
38%
Hillerød 3+ goals
15%
Kolding IF 1+ goals
75%
Kolding IF 2+ goals
40%
Kolding IF 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Hillerød (draw refunded)
48%
Kolding IF (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hillerød at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

Kolding IF away — creates 1.73, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hillerød attack 1.80 + Kolding IF defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.32

Kolding IF attack 1.73 + Hillerød defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hillerød scores more
36%
level
26%
Kolding IF scores more
39%

Kolding IF at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kolding IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hillerød vs Kolding IF

Hillerød and Kolding IF drew 0-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on November 20, 2021.

The match was played at Secma Ground in Hillerød.