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Hilal Obayed vs Al Ahli Khartoum — Sudani Premier League 2019

Hilal Obayed
Hilal Obayed
FT
0 – 0
Al Ahli Khartoum
Al Ahli Khartoum
12/6/2018Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 3Al-Ubayyid Stadium (Al Obayed (Al-Ubayyid))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Hilal Obayed47%
×Draw29%
Al Ahli Khartoum23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hilal Obayed
1.25
Al Ahli Khartoum
0.78

Hilal Obayed creates 60% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 81 away

creates per match

Hilal Obayed
1.33
Al Ahli Khartoum
0.73

allows per match

Hilal Obayed
0.84
Al Ahli Khartoum
1.16

finishing

Hilal Obayed+0.00on par
Al Ahli Khartoum+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilal Obayed ↓

Al Ahli Khartoum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Hilal Obayed or draw
77%
Hilal Obayed or Al Ahli Khartoum
71%
Draw or Al Ahli Khartoum
53%

Winning margin

Hilal Obayed wins by 2+
22%
Al Ahli Khartoum wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hilal Obayed 1+ goals
71%
Hilal Obayed 2+ goals
36%
Hilal Obayed 3+ goals
13%
Al Ahli Khartoum 1+ goals
54%
Al Ahli Khartoum 2+ goals
18%
Al Ahli Khartoum 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Hilal Obayed (draw refunded)
67%
Al Ahli Khartoum (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilal Obayed at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.84 · 58 matches

Al Ahli Khartoum away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.16 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilal Obayed attack 1.33 + Al Ahli Khartoum defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.25

Al Ahli Khartoum attack 0.73 + Hilal Obayed defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hilal Obayed scores more
47%
level
29%
Al Ahli Khartoum scores more
23%

Hilal Obayed at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hilal Obayed will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Hilal Obayed 0–0 Al Ahli Khartoum

Hilal Obayed and Al Ahli Khartoum drew 0-0 in Sudani Premier League on December 6, 2018.

The match was played at Al-Ubayyid Stadium (Al Obayed (Al-Ubayyid)).