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Hilal El-Fasher vs Al Ahli Khartoum — Sudani Premier League 2019

Hilal El-Fasher
Hilal El-Fasher
FT
1 – 1
Al Ahli Khartoum
Al Ahli Khartoum
2/24/2020Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 22Alnagea Staduim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Hilal El-Fasher43%
×Draw30%
Al Ahli Khartoum28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hilal El-Fasher
1.18
Al Ahli Khartoum
0.89

Hilal El-Fasher creates 33% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 81 away

creates per match

Hilal El-Fasher
1.20
Al Ahli Khartoum
0.73

allows per match

Hilal El-Fasher
1.04
Al Ahli Khartoum
1.16

finishing

Hilal El-Fasher+0.00on par
Al Ahli Khartoum+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilal El-Fasher ↓

Al Ahli Khartoum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Hilal El-Fasher or draw
72%
Hilal El-Fasher or Al Ahli Khartoum
70%
Draw or Al Ahli Khartoum
57%

Winning margin

Hilal El-Fasher wins by 2+
18%
Al Ahli Khartoum wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hilal El-Fasher 1+ goals
69%
Hilal El-Fasher 2+ goals
33%
Hilal El-Fasher 3+ goals
12%
Al Ahli Khartoum 1+ goals
59%
Al Ahli Khartoum 2+ goals
22%
Al Ahli Khartoum 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Hilal El-Fasher (draw refunded)
61%
Al Ahli Khartoum (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilal El-Fasher at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.04 · 74 matches

Al Ahli Khartoum away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.16 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilal El-Fasher attack 1.20 + Al Ahli Khartoum defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.18

Al Ahli Khartoum attack 0.73 + Hilal El-Fasher defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hilal El-Fasher scores more
43%
level
30%
Al Ahli Khartoum scores more
28%

Hilal El-Fasher at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hilal El-Fasher will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Hilal El-Fasher 1–1 Al Ahli Khartoum

Hilal El-Fasher and Al Ahli Khartoum drew 1-1 in Sudani Premier League on February 24, 2020.

The match was played at Alnagea Staduim in Al Fashir.