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HIK vs Nykobing FC — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

HIK
HIK
Preview
18:00
Nykobing FC
Nykobing FC
10/30/20262nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 14
Big match
47%
HIK
model favours
47%23%29%

Nykobing FC are unbeaten in 11 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

HIK47%
×Draw23%
Nykobing FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HIK
1.77
Nykobing FC
1.35

HIK creates 31% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 32 away

creates per match

HIK
1.39
Nykobing FC
1.13

allows per match

HIK
1.57
Nykobing FC
2.16

finishing

HIK+0.00on par
Nykobing FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HIK ↓

Nykobing FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

HIK or draw
71%
HIK or Nykobing FC
77%
Draw or Nykobing FC
53%

Winning margin

HIK wins by 2+
26%
Nykobing FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

HIK 1+ goals
83%
HIK 2+ goals
53%
HIK 3+ goals
26%
Nykobing FC 1+ goals
74%
Nykobing FC 2+ goals
39%
Nykobing FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

HIK (draw refunded)
62%
Nykobing FC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HIK at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.57 · 82 matches

Nykobing FC away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.16 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HIK attack 1.39 + Nykobing FC defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.77

Nykobing FC attack 1.13 + HIK defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

HIK scores more
47%
level
23%
Nykobing FC scores more
29%

HIK at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "HIK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Nykobing FC have won 6 in a row
  • 73% of Nykobing FC’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
HIK
LDLWL
FC
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

HIK face Nykobing FC (2nd Division - Group 1)

2nd Division - Group 1 returns with HIK hosting Nykobing FC. Match starts October 30, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.