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HIK vs Fremad Amager — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

HIK
HIK
Preview
18:00
Fremad Amager
Fremad Amager
3/5/20272nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 17
Big match
39%
HIK
model favours
39%25%36%

Fremad Amager score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

HIK39%
×Draw25%
Fremad Amager36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HIK
1.44
Fremad Amager
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 48 away

creates per match

HIK
1.39
Fremad Amager
1.17

allows per match

HIK
1.57
Fremad Amager
1.48

finishing

HIK+0.00on par
Fremad Amager+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HIK ↓

Fremad Amager →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

HIK or draw
64%
HIK or Fremad Amager
75%
Draw or Fremad Amager
61%

Winning margin

HIK wins by 2+
18%
Fremad Amager wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

HIK 1+ goals
76%
HIK 2+ goals
42%
HIK 3+ goals
18%
Fremad Amager 1+ goals
75%
Fremad Amager 2+ goals
40%
Fremad Amager 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

HIK (draw refunded)
52%
Fremad Amager (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HIK at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.57 · 82 matches

Fremad Amager away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.48 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HIK attack 1.39 + Fremad Amager defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.44

Fremad Amager attack 1.17 + HIK defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

HIK scores more
39%
level
25%
Fremad Amager scores more
36%

HIK at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "HIK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
HIK
DLWL
Amager
DLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

HIK vs Fremad Amager — Match Preview

HIK face Fremad Amager on March 5, 2027 in this 2nd Division - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.