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HIK vs FA 2000 — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

HIK
HIK
FT
2 – 2
FA 2000
FA 2000
J. Rindom 90+2', 77'
J. Jorgensen 28'
J. Rosfeldt 23'
10/22/20212nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Gentofte Sportspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

HIK46%
×Draw25%
FA 200029%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HIK
1.54
FA 2000
1.17

HIK creates 32% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 35 away

creates per match

HIK
1.42
FA 2000
0.77

allows per match

HIK
1.57
FA 2000
1.66

finishing

HIK+0.00on par
FA 2000+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HIK ↓

FA 2000 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

HIK or draw
71%
HIK or FA 2000
75%
Draw or FA 2000
54%

Winning margin

HIK wins by 2+
23%
FA 2000 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

HIK 1+ goals
79%
HIK 2+ goals
45%
HIK 3+ goals
20%
FA 2000 1+ goals
69%
FA 2000 2+ goals
33%
FA 2000 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

HIK (draw refunded)
61%
FA 2000 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HIK at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.57 · 83 matches

FA 2000 away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.66 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HIK attack 1.42 + FA 2000 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.54

FA 2000 attack 0.77 + HIK defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

HIK scores more
46%
level
25%
FA 2000 scores more
29%

HIK at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "HIK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
J. Rosfeldt
28'
J. Jorgensen
77'
J. Rindom
90+2'
J. Rindom

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: HIK 2–2 FA 2000

HIK and FA 2000 drew 2-2 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on October 22, 2021.

Goals: J. Rosfeldt (23'), J. Jorgensen (28'), J. Rindom (77', 90+2').

The match was played at Gentofte Sportspark in Gentofte.