Highlanders 2–1 Moneni Pirates: Result & Stats

Highlanders

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Moneni Pirates

11/5/2023

Premier League · Round 6Mavuso Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Highlanders47%

×Draw26%

Moneni Pirates26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HighlandersExpected goals in this matchMoneni Pirates

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.02

Highlanders

1.47

Moneni Pirates

1.02

Highlanders creates 44% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 83 away

1.58

creates per match

1.04

1.00

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Highlanders

1.58

Moneni Pirates

1.04

allows per match

Highlanders

1.00

Moneni Pirates

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Highlanders+0.00on par

Moneni Pirates+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Highlanders ↓

Moneni Pirates →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Highlanders or draw

74%

Highlanders or Moneni Pirates

74%

Draw or Moneni Pirates

53%

Winning margin

Highlanders wins by 2+

24%

Moneni Pirates wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Highlanders 1+ goals

77%

Highlanders 2+ goals

43%

Highlanders 3+ goals

18%

Moneni Pirates 1+ goals

64%

Moneni Pirates 2+ goals

27%

Moneni Pirates 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Highlanders (draw refunded)

64%

Moneni Pirates (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Highlanders at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.00 · 85 matches

Moneni Pirates away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.35 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Highlanders attack 1.58 + Moneni Pirates defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.47

Moneni Pirates attack 1.04 + Highlanders defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Highlanders scores more

47%

level

26%

Moneni Pirates scores more

26%

Highlanders at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Highlanders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff