Highlanders 0–3 Green Mamba: Result & Stats

Highlanders

FT

0 – 3

Green Mamba

3/12/2023

Premier League · Round 15Mavuso Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Highlanders36%

×Draw27%

Green Mamba37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HighlandersExpected goals in this matchGreen Mamba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.25

Highlanders

1.22

Green Mamba

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 84 away

1.58

creates per match

1.49

1.00

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Highlanders

1.58

Green Mamba

1.49

allows per match

Highlanders

1.00

Green Mamba

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Highlanders+0.00on par

Green Mamba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Highlanders ↓

Green Mamba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Highlanders or draw

63%

Highlanders or Green Mamba

73%

Draw or Green Mamba

64%

Winning margin

Highlanders wins by 2+

15%

Green Mamba wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Highlanders 1+ goals

70%

Highlanders 2+ goals

34%

Highlanders 3+ goals

12%

Green Mamba 1+ goals

71%

Green Mamba 2+ goals

36%

Green Mamba 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Highlanders (draw refunded)

49%

Green Mamba (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Highlanders at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.00 · 85 matches

Green Mamba away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.86 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Highlanders attack 1.58 + Green Mamba defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.22

Green Mamba attack 1.49 + Highlanders defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Highlanders scores more

36%

level

27%

Green Mamba scores more

37%

Green Mamba at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Green Mamba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff