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Highlanders vs Green Fuel — Premier Soccer League 2026

Highlanders
Highlanders
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Green Fuel
Green Fuel
5/28/2023Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 11Barbourfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Highlanders52%
×Draw31%
Green Fuel17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Highlanders
1.19
Green Fuel
0.56

Highlanders creates 112% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 51 away

creates per match

Highlanders
1.15
Green Fuel
0.55

allows per match

Highlanders
0.56
Green Fuel
1.24

finishing

Highlanders+0.00on par
Green Fuel+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Highlanders ↓

Green Fuel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Highlanders or draw
83%
Highlanders or Green Fuel
69%
Draw or Green Fuel
48%

Winning margin

Highlanders wins by 2+
23%
Green Fuel wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Highlanders 1+ goals
70%
Highlanders 2+ goals
33%
Highlanders 3+ goals
12%
Green Fuel 1+ goals
43%
Green Fuel 2+ goals
11%
Green Fuel 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Highlanders (draw refunded)
75%
Green Fuel (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Highlanders at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.56 · 96 matches

Green Fuel away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.24 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Highlanders attack 1.15 + Green Fuel defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Green Fuel attack 0.55 + Highlanders defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Highlanders scores more
52%
level
31%
Green Fuel scores more
17%

Highlanders at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Highlanders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Highlanders vs Green Fuel

Highlanders and Green Fuel drew 1-1 in Premier Soccer League on May 28, 2023.

The match was played at Barbourfields Stadium in Bulawayo.