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HIFK Helsinki vs Mariehamn — Veikkausliiga 2018

HIFK Helsinki
HIFK Helsinki
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mariehamn
Mariehamn
5/8/2019VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 7Telia 5G -areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

HIFK Helsinki38%
×Draw26%
Mariehamn36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HIFK Helsinki
1.40
Mariehamn
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 120 away

creates per match

HIFK Helsinki
1.08
Mariehamn
1.02

allows per match

HIFK Helsinki
1.71
Mariehamn
1.71

finishing

HIFK Helsinki+0.00on par
Mariehamn+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HIFK Helsinki ↓

Mariehamn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

HIFK Helsinki or draw
64%
HIFK Helsinki or Mariehamn
74%
Draw or Mariehamn
62%

Winning margin

HIFK Helsinki wins by 2+
18%
Mariehamn wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

HIFK Helsinki 1+ goals
75%
HIFK Helsinki 2+ goals
41%
HIFK Helsinki 3+ goals
17%
Mariehamn 1+ goals
74%
Mariehamn 2+ goals
39%
Mariehamn 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

HIFK Helsinki (draw refunded)
51%
Mariehamn (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HIFK Helsinki at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.71 · 51 matches

Mariehamn away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.71 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HIFK Helsinki attack 1.08 + Mariehamn defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.40

Mariehamn attack 1.02 + HIFK Helsinki defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

HIFK Helsinki scores more
38%
level
26%
Mariehamn scores more
36%

HIFK Helsinki at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "HIFK Helsinki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veikkausliiga: HIFK Helsinki 1–1 Mariehamn

HIFK Helsinki and Mariehamn drew 1-1 in Veikkausliiga on May 8, 2019.

The match was played at Telia 5G -areena in Helsinki.