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HIFK Helsinki vs Lahti — Suomen Cup 2018

HIFK Helsinki
HIFK Helsinki
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lahti
Lahti
2/20/2021Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Group Stage - 4Tali halli tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

HIFK Helsinki20%
×Draw20%
Lahti60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HIFK Helsinki
1.26
Lahti
2.27

Lahti creates 80% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 23 away

creates per match

HIFK Helsinki
1.30
Lahti
2.65

allows per match

HIFK Helsinki
1.90
Lahti
1.22

finishing

HIFK Helsinki+0.00on par
Lahti+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HIFK Helsinki ↓

Lahti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

HIFK Helsinki or draw
40%
HIFK Helsinki or Lahti
80%
Draw or Lahti
80%

Winning margin

HIFK Helsinki wins by 2+
8%
Lahti wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

HIFK Helsinki 1+ goals
72%
HIFK Helsinki 2+ goals
36%
HIFK Helsinki 3+ goals
13%
Lahti 1+ goals
90%
Lahti 2+ goals
66%
Lahti 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

HIFK Helsinki (draw refunded)
25%
Lahti (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HIFK Helsinki at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

Lahti away — creates 2.65, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HIFK Helsinki attack 1.30 + Lahti defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.26

Lahti attack 2.65 + HIFK Helsinki defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

HIFK Helsinki scores more
20%
level
20%
Lahti scores more
60%

Lahti at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Lahti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: HIFK Helsinki 1–0 Lahti

HIFK Helsinki beat Lahti 1-0 in Suomen Cup on February 20, 2021.

The match was played at Tali halli tekonurmi in Helsinki.