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HIFK Helsinki vs Inter Turku — Veikkausliiga 2018

HIFK Helsinki
HIFK Helsinki
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Inter Turku
Inter Turku
9/14/2020VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 14Bolt Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

HIFK Helsinki30%
×Draw25%
Inter Turku45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HIFK Helsinki
1.21
Inter Turku
1.54

Inter Turku creates 27% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 118 away

creates per match

HIFK Helsinki
1.08
Inter Turku
1.38

allows per match

HIFK Helsinki
1.71
Inter Turku
1.34

finishing

HIFK Helsinki+0.00on par
Inter Turku+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HIFK Helsinki ↓

Inter Turku →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

HIFK Helsinki or draw
55%
HIFK Helsinki or Inter Turku
75%
Draw or Inter Turku
70%

Winning margin

HIFK Helsinki wins by 2+
12%
Inter Turku wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

HIFK Helsinki 1+ goals
70%
HIFK Helsinki 2+ goals
34%
HIFK Helsinki 3+ goals
12%
Inter Turku 1+ goals
79%
Inter Turku 2+ goals
45%
Inter Turku 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

HIFK Helsinki (draw refunded)
40%
Inter Turku (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HIFK Helsinki at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.71 · 51 matches

Inter Turku away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HIFK Helsinki attack 1.08 + Inter Turku defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.21

Inter Turku attack 1.38 + HIFK Helsinki defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

HIFK Helsinki scores more
30%
level
25%
Inter Turku scores more
45%

Inter Turku at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Inter Turku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veikkausliiga: HIFK Helsinki 0–0 Inter Turku

HIFK Helsinki and Inter Turku drew 0-0 in Veikkausliiga on September 14, 2020.

The match was played at Bolt Arena in Helsinki.