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HIFK Helsinki vs Inter Turku — Suomen Cup 2018

HIFK Helsinki
HIFK Helsinki
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Inter Turku
Inter Turku
2/14/2020Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Group Stage - 4Talin jalkapallohalli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

HIFK Helsinki19%
×Draw21%
Inter Turku60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HIFK Helsinki
1.08
Inter Turku
2.06

Inter Turku creates 91% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 22 away

creates per match

HIFK Helsinki
1.30
Inter Turku
2.23

allows per match

HIFK Helsinki
1.90
Inter Turku
0.86

finishing

HIFK Helsinki+0.00on par
Inter Turku+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HIFK Helsinki ↓

Inter Turku →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

HIFK Helsinki or draw
40%
HIFK Helsinki or Inter Turku
79%
Draw or Inter Turku
81%

Winning margin

HIFK Helsinki wins by 2+
7%
Inter Turku wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

HIFK Helsinki 1+ goals
66%
HIFK Helsinki 2+ goals
29%
HIFK Helsinki 3+ goals
10%
Inter Turku 1+ goals
87%
Inter Turku 2+ goals
61%
Inter Turku 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

HIFK Helsinki (draw refunded)
24%
Inter Turku (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HIFK Helsinki at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

Inter Turku away — creates 2.23, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HIFK Helsinki attack 1.30 + Inter Turku defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.08

Inter Turku attack 2.23 + HIFK Helsinki defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

HIFK Helsinki scores more
19%
level
21%
Inter Turku scores more
60%

Inter Turku at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Inter Turku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HIFK Helsinki vs Inter Turku

HIFK Helsinki and Inter Turku drew 1-1 in Suomen Cup on February 14, 2020.

The match was played at Talin jalkapallohalli in Helsinki.