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HIFK Helsinki vs Honka — Veikkausliiga 2018

HIFK Helsinki
HIFK Helsinki
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Honka
Honka
6/15/2021VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 1Bolt Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

HIFK Helsinki28%
×Draw26%
Honka46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HIFK Helsinki
1.11
Honka
1.50

Honka creates 35% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 84 away

creates per match

HIFK Helsinki
1.08
Honka
1.29

allows per match

HIFK Helsinki
1.71
Honka
1.14

finishing

HIFK Helsinki+0.00on par
Honka+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HIFK Helsinki ↓

Honka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

HIFK Helsinki or draw
54%
HIFK Helsinki or Honka
74%
Draw or Honka
72%

Winning margin

HIFK Helsinki wins by 2+
11%
Honka wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

HIFK Helsinki 1+ goals
67%
HIFK Helsinki 2+ goals
30%
HIFK Helsinki 3+ goals
10%
Honka 1+ goals
78%
Honka 2+ goals
44%
Honka 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

HIFK Helsinki (draw refunded)
38%
Honka (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HIFK Helsinki at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.71 · 51 matches

Honka away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.14 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HIFK Helsinki attack 1.08 + Honka defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.11

Honka attack 1.29 + HIFK Helsinki defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

HIFK Helsinki scores more
28%
level
26%
Honka scores more
46%

Honka at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Honka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HIFK Helsinki vs Honka

HIFK Helsinki beat Honka 1-0 in Veikkausliiga on June 15, 2021.

The match was played at Bolt Arena in Helsinki.