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HIFK Helsinki vs Honka — Suomen Cup 2018

HIFK Helsinki
HIFK Helsinki
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Honka
Honka
2/9/2019Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Group Stage - 3Tali nurmi 1 (Helsinki)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

HIFK Helsinki19%
×Draw21%
Honka60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HIFK Helsinki
1.06
Honka
2.04

Honka creates 92% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 18 away

creates per match

HIFK Helsinki
1.30
Honka
2.17

allows per match

HIFK Helsinki
1.90
Honka
0.83

finishing

HIFK Helsinki+0.00on par
Honka+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HIFK Helsinki ↓

Honka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

HIFK Helsinki or draw
40%
HIFK Helsinki or Honka
79%
Draw or Honka
81%

Winning margin

HIFK Helsinki wins by 2+
7%
Honka wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

HIFK Helsinki 1+ goals
65%
HIFK Helsinki 2+ goals
29%
HIFK Helsinki 3+ goals
9%
Honka 1+ goals
87%
Honka 2+ goals
60%
Honka 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

HIFK Helsinki (draw refunded)
24%
Honka (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HIFK Helsinki at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

Honka away — creates 2.17, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HIFK Helsinki attack 1.30 + Honka defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.06

Honka attack 2.17 + HIFK Helsinki defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

HIFK Helsinki scores more
19%
level
21%
Honka scores more
60%

Honka at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Honka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HIFK Helsinki vs Honka

Honka beat HIFK Helsinki 2-1 in Suomen Cup on February 9, 2019.

The match was played at Tali nurmi 1 (Helsinki).