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HIFK Helsinki vs HJK Helsinki — Suomen Cup 2018

HIFK Helsinki
HIFK Helsinki
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki
2/1/2020Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Group Stage - 2Tali halli tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

HIFK Helsinki14%
×Draw19%
HJK Helsinki67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HIFK Helsinki
0.95
HJK Helsinki
2.27

HJK Helsinki creates 139% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 17 away

creates per match

HIFK Helsinki
1.30
HJK Helsinki
2.65

allows per match

HIFK Helsinki
1.90
HJK Helsinki
0.59

finishing

HIFK Helsinki+0.00on par
HJK Helsinki+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HIFK Helsinki ↓

HJK Helsinki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

HIFK Helsinki or draw
33%
HIFK Helsinki or HJK Helsinki
81%
Draw or HJK Helsinki
86%

Winning margin

HIFK Helsinki wins by 2+
5%
HJK Helsinki wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

HIFK Helsinki 1+ goals
61%
HIFK Helsinki 2+ goals
25%
HIFK Helsinki 3+ goals
7%
HJK Helsinki 1+ goals
90%
HJK Helsinki 2+ goals
66%
HJK Helsinki 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

HIFK Helsinki (draw refunded)
18%
HJK Helsinki (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HIFK Helsinki at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

HJK Helsinki away — creates 2.65, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HIFK Helsinki attack 1.30 + HJK Helsinki defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.95

HJK Helsinki attack 2.65 + HIFK Helsinki defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

HIFK Helsinki scores more
14%
level
19%
HJK Helsinki scores more
67%

HJK Helsinki at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "HJK Helsinki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: HIFK Helsinki 1–2 HJK Helsinki

HJK Helsinki beat HIFK Helsinki 2-1 in Suomen Cup on February 1, 2020.

The match was played at Tali halli tekonurmi in Helsinki.