Hibernian 4–2 ST Mirren: Result & Stats

Hibernian

FT

4 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

ST Mirren

9/27/2023

League Cup · Quarter-finalsEaster Road Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Hibernian52%

×Draw22%

ST Mirren26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HibernianExpected goals in this matchST Mirren

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.32

Hibernian

1.94

ST Mirren

1.32

Hibernian creates 47% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

2.73

creates per match

1.57

1.07

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Hibernian

2.73

ST Mirren

1.57

allows per match

Hibernian

1.07

ST Mirren

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hibernian+0.00on par

ST Mirren+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hibernian ↓

ST Mirren →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Hibernian or draw

74%

Hibernian or ST Mirren

78%

Draw or ST Mirren

48%

Winning margin

Hibernian wins by 2+

30%

ST Mirren wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Hibernian 1+ goals

86%

Hibernian 2+ goals

58%

Hibernian 3+ goals

30%

ST Mirren 1+ goals

73%

ST Mirren 2+ goals

38%

ST Mirren 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Hibernian (draw refunded)

66%

ST Mirren (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hibernian at home — creates 2.73, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

ST Mirren away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hibernian attack 2.73 + ST Mirren defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.94

ST Mirren attack 1.57 + Hibernian defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hibernian scores more

52%

level

22%

ST Mirren scores more

26%

Hibernian at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Hibernian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff