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Hibernian vs Livingston — Premiership 2018

Hibernian
Hibernian
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Livingston
Livingston
3/16/2024PremiershipPremiership · 1st Phase - 30Easter Road Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Hibernian59%
×Draw22%
Livingston18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hibernian
1.85
Livingston
0.92

Hibernian creates 101% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

creates per match

Hibernian
1.73
Livingston
1.02

allows per match

Hibernian
0.81
Livingston
1.97

finishing

Hibernian-0.18scores less
Livingston-0.10scores less

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hibernian ↓

Livingston →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Hibernian or draw
82%
Hibernian or Livingston
78%
Draw or Livingston
41%

Winning margin

Hibernian wins by 2+
34%
Livingston wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Hibernian 1+ goals
84%
Hibernian 2+ goals
55%
Hibernian 3+ goals
28%
Livingston 1+ goals
60%
Livingston 2+ goals
23%
Livingston 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Hibernian (draw refunded)
76%
Livingston (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hibernian at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.81 · 11 matches

Livingston away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.97 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hibernian attack 1.73 + Livingston defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.85

Livingston attack 1.02 + Hibernian defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Hibernian scores more
59%
level
22%
Livingston scores more
18%

Hibernian at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Hibernian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hibernian vs Livingston

Hibernian beat Livingston 3-0 in Premiership on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Easter Road Stadium in Edinburgh.