Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hibernian vs Kilmarnock — League Cup 2018

Hibernian
Hibernian
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock
8/15/2021League CupLeague Cup · 2nd RoundEaster Road Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Hibernian45%
×Draw23%
Kilmarnock32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hibernian
1.79
Kilmarnock
1.47

Hibernian creates 22% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

creates per match

Hibernian
2.73
Kilmarnock
1.86

allows per match

Hibernian
1.07
Kilmarnock
0.86

finishing

Hibernian+0.00on par
Kilmarnock+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hibernian ↓

Kilmarnock →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Hibernian or draw
68%
Hibernian or Kilmarnock
77%
Draw or Kilmarnock
55%

Winning margin

Hibernian wins by 2+
24%
Kilmarnock wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hibernian 1+ goals
83%
Hibernian 2+ goals
53%
Hibernian 3+ goals
26%
Kilmarnock 1+ goals
77%
Kilmarnock 2+ goals
43%
Kilmarnock 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Hibernian (draw refunded)
59%
Kilmarnock (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hibernian at home — creates 2.73, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Kilmarnock away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hibernian attack 2.73 + Kilmarnock defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.79

Kilmarnock attack 1.86 + Hibernian defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hibernian scores more
45%
level
23%
Kilmarnock scores more
32%

Hibernian at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hibernian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Hibernian 2–0 Kilmarnock

Hibernian beat Kilmarnock 2-0 in League Cup on August 15, 2021.

The match was played at Easter Road Stadium in Edinburgh.