HFX Wanderers FC vs York United — Canadian Premier League 2020
York United score first in only 20% of matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 82+ matches
HFX Wanderers FC44%
York United30%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
HFX Wanderers FC creates 24% more chances
Season form · 83 home / 82 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under50
- Over50
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
HFX Wanderers FC ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
HFX Wanderers FC at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.23 · 83 matches
York United away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.51 · 82 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
HFX Wanderers FC attack 1.46 + York United defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.48
York United attack 1.15 + HFX Wanderers FC defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.19
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
HFX Wanderers FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "HFX Wanderers FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- HFX Wanderers FC score first in only 24% of matches
- Both teams score in 70% of York United’s matches
- Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
HFX Wanderers FC host York United on Sunday, 20 September 2026 at 19:00. The match is part of the Canadian Premier League 2020/2021 season.
HFX Wanderers FC face York United (Canadian Premier League)
Canadian Premier League returns with HFX Wanderers FC hosting York United. Match starts September 20, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
HFX Wanderers FC host York United at Wanderers Grounds.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.