Hessen Kassel vs FC Schalke 04

Hessen Kassel

Preview

12:00

FC Schalke 04

8/1/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

50%

FC Schalke 04

model favours

30%21%50%

Hessen Kassel and FC Schalke 04 have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–2

likely score

74%

over 2.5 goals

72%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Hessen Kassel30%

×Draw21%

FC Schalke 0450%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hessen KasselExpected goals in this matchFC Schalke 04

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

2.19

Hessen Kassel

1.66

FC Schalke 04

2.19

FC Schalke 04 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

2.40

creates per match

2.18

2.20

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Hessen Kassel

2.40

FC Schalke 04

2.18

allows per match

Hessen Kassel

2.20

FC Schalke 04

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hessen Kassel+0.00on par

FC Schalke 04+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hessen Kassel ↓

FC Schalke 04 →

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Hessen Kassel or draw

50%

Hessen Kassel or FC Schalke 04

79%

Draw or FC Schalke 04

70%

Winning margin

Hessen Kassel wins by 2+

14%

FC Schalke 04 wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Hessen Kassel 1+ goals

81%

Hessen Kassel 2+ goals

49%

Hessen Kassel 3+ goals

23%

FC Schalke 04 1+ goals

89%

FC Schalke 04 2+ goals

64%

FC Schalke 04 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Hessen Kassel (draw refunded)

37%

FC Schalke 04 (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Hessen Kassel at home — creates 2.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

FC Schalke 04 away — creates 2.18, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Hessen Kassel attack 2.40 + FC Schalke 04 defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.66

FC Schalke 04 attack 2.18 + Hessen Kassel defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hessen Kassel scores more

30%

level

21%

FC Schalke 04 scores more

50%

FC Schalke 04 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FC Schalke 04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

Kassel

WLLLW

WLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff