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Hertha Wiesbach vs TuS Koblenz — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Hertha Wiesbach
Hertha Wiesbach
Preview
18:00
TuS Koblenz
TuS Koblenz
3/17/2027Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz/Saar - 24
40%
TuS Koblenz
model favours
38%22%40%
1–1
likely score
70%
over 2.5 goals
70%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Hertha Wiesbach38%
×Draw22%
TuS Koblenz40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha Wiesbach
1.80
TuS Koblenz
1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 60 away

creates per match

Hertha Wiesbach
2.28
TuS Koblenz
1.85

allows per match

Hertha Wiesbach
1.81
TuS Koblenz
1.33

finishing

Hertha Wiesbach+0.00on par
TuS Koblenz+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Wiesbach ↓

TuS Koblenz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Hertha Wiesbach or draw
60%
Hertha Wiesbach or TuS Koblenz
78%
Draw or TuS Koblenz
62%

Winning margin

Hertha Wiesbach wins by 2+
20%
TuS Koblenz wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Hertha Wiesbach 1+ goals
83%
Hertha Wiesbach 2+ goals
54%
Hertha Wiesbach 3+ goals
27%
TuS Koblenz 1+ goals
84%
TuS Koblenz 2+ goals
54%
TuS Koblenz 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Hertha Wiesbach (draw refunded)
49%
TuS Koblenz (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Wiesbach at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.81 · 43 matches

TuS Koblenz away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Wiesbach attack 2.28 + TuS Koblenz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.80

TuS Koblenz attack 1.85 + Hertha Wiesbach defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hertha Wiesbach scores more
38%
level
22%
TuS Koblenz scores more
40%

TuS Koblenz at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "TuS Koblenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Wiesbach
LLWWW
Koblenz
WWLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Hertha Wiesbach host TuS Koblenz

March 17, 2027: Hertha Wiesbach take on TuS Koblenz in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.