Hertha Wiesbach 4–0 Jägersburg: Result & Stats

Hertha Wiesbach

FT

4 – 0

Jägersburg

10/16/2020

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 8ProWin Stadion am Wallenborn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Hertha Wiesbach57%

×Draw19%

Jägersburg24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hertha WiesbachExpected goals in this matchJägersburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.56

1.65

Hertha Wiesbach

2.56

Jägersburg

1.65

Hertha Wiesbach creates 55% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 25 away

2.28

creates per match

1.48

1.81

allows per match

2.84

creates per match

Hertha Wiesbach

2.28

Jägersburg

1.48

allows per match

Hertha Wiesbach

1.81

Jägersburg

2.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hertha Wiesbach+0.00on par

Jägersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Wiesbach ↓

Jägersburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Hertha Wiesbach or draw

76%

Hertha Wiesbach or Jägersburg

81%

Draw or Jägersburg

43%

Winning margin

Hertha Wiesbach wins by 2+

37%

Jägersburg wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Hertha Wiesbach 1+ goals

92%

Hertha Wiesbach 2+ goals

72%

Hertha Wiesbach 3+ goals

46%

Jägersburg 1+ goals

81%

Jägersburg 2+ goals

49%

Jägersburg 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Hertha Wiesbach (draw refunded)

70%

Jägersburg (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Wiesbach at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.81 · 43 matches

Jägersburg away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.84 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Wiesbach attack 2.28 + Jägersburg defence 2.84 → ÷2 → 2.56

Jägersburg attack 1.48 + Hertha Wiesbach defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hertha Wiesbach scores more

57%

level

19%

Jägersburg scores more

24%

Hertha Wiesbach at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hertha Wiesbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff