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Hertha vs Wolfsberger AC II — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Hertha
Hertha
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Wolfsberger AC II
Wolfsberger AC II
9/28/2019Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 10Mauth Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Hertha50%
×Draw21%
Wolfsberger AC II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha
2.11
Wolfsberger AC II
1.57

Hertha creates 34% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 96 away

creates per match

Hertha
2.48
Wolfsberger AC II
1.84

allows per match

Hertha
1.30
Wolfsberger AC II
1.74

finishing

Hertha+0.00on par
Wolfsberger AC II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha ↓

Wolfsberger AC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Hertha or draw
71%
Hertha or Wolfsberger AC II
79%
Draw or Wolfsberger AC II
50%

Winning margin

Hertha wins by 2+
29%
Wolfsberger AC II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hertha 1+ goals
88%
Hertha 2+ goals
62%
Hertha 3+ goals
35%
Wolfsberger AC II 1+ goals
79%
Wolfsberger AC II 2+ goals
46%
Wolfsberger AC II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Hertha (draw refunded)
63%
Wolfsberger AC II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha at home — creates 2.48, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

Wolfsberger AC II away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.74 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha attack 2.48 + Wolfsberger AC II defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 2.11

Wolfsberger AC II attack 1.84 + Hertha defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hertha scores more
50%
level
21%
Wolfsberger AC II scores more
29%

Hertha at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hertha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hertha vs Wolfsberger AC II

Hertha beat Wolfsberger AC II 4-1 in Regionalliga - Mitte on September 28, 2019.

The match was played at Mauth Stadion in Wels.