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Hertha vs Union Vöcklamarkt — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Hertha
Hertha
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Union Vöcklamarkt
Union Vöcklamarkt
9/11/2020Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 5Mauth Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Hertha60%
×Draw20%
Union Vöcklamarkt20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha
2.30
Union Vöcklamarkt
1.28

Hertha creates 80% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 91 away

creates per match

Hertha
2.48
Union Vöcklamarkt
1.26

allows per match

Hertha
1.30
Union Vöcklamarkt
2.12

finishing

Hertha+0.00on par
Union Vöcklamarkt+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha ↓

Union Vöcklamarkt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Hertha or draw
80%
Hertha or Union Vöcklamarkt
80%
Draw or Union Vöcklamarkt
40%

Winning margin

Hertha wins by 2+
38%
Union Vöcklamarkt wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hertha 1+ goals
90%
Hertha 2+ goals
67%
Hertha 3+ goals
40%
Union Vöcklamarkt 1+ goals
72%
Union Vöcklamarkt 2+ goals
37%
Union Vöcklamarkt 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hertha (draw refunded)
75%
Union Vöcklamarkt (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha at home — creates 2.48, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

Union Vöcklamarkt away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.12 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha attack 2.48 + Union Vöcklamarkt defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.30

Union Vöcklamarkt attack 1.26 + Hertha defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Hertha scores more
60%
level
20%
Union Vöcklamarkt scores more
20%

Hertha at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Hertha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: Hertha 2–1 Union Vöcklamarkt

Hertha beat Union Vöcklamarkt 2-1 in Regionalliga - Mitte on September 11, 2020.

The match was played at Mauth Stadion in Wels.