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Hertha vs Allerheiligen — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Hertha
Hertha
FT
0 – 3
Allerheiligen
Allerheiligen
9/28/2018Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Round 10Mauth Stadion (Wels)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Hertha55%
×Draw21%
Allerheiligen24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha
2.13
Allerheiligen
1.37

Hertha creates 55% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 75 away

creates per match

Hertha
2.48
Allerheiligen
1.44

allows per match

Hertha
1.30
Allerheiligen
1.79

finishing

Hertha+0.00on par
Allerheiligen+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha ↓

Allerheiligen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Hertha or draw
76%
Hertha or Allerheiligen
79%
Draw or Allerheiligen
45%

Winning margin

Hertha wins by 2+
33%
Allerheiligen wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hertha 1+ goals
88%
Hertha 2+ goals
63%
Hertha 3+ goals
35%
Allerheiligen 1+ goals
75%
Allerheiligen 2+ goals
40%
Allerheiligen 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Hertha (draw refunded)
69%
Allerheiligen (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha at home — creates 2.48, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

Allerheiligen away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.79 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha attack 2.48 + Allerheiligen defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.13

Allerheiligen attack 1.44 + Hertha defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Hertha scores more
55%
level
21%
Allerheiligen scores more
24%

Hertha at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Hertha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: Hertha 0–3 Allerheiligen

Allerheiligen beat Hertha 3-0 in Regionalliga - Mitte on September 28, 2018.

The match was played at Mauth Stadion (Wels).