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Hertha BSC II vs SV Babelsberg 03 — Regionalliga - Nordost 2026

Hertha BSC II
Hertha BSC II
CANC
12:30
SV Babelsberg 03
SV Babelsberg 03
12/13/2020Regionalliga - NordostRegionalliga - Nordost · Nordost - 18Olympiapark-Amateurstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Hertha BSC II23%
×Draw25%
SV Babelsberg 0352%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha BSC II
1.00
SV Babelsberg 03
1.64

SV Babelsberg 03 creates 64% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 27 away

creates per match

Hertha BSC II
0.79
SV Babelsberg 03
1.56

allows per match

Hertha BSC II
1.71
SV Babelsberg 03
1.22

finishing

Hertha BSC II+0.00on par
SV Babelsberg 03+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha BSC II ↓

SV Babelsberg 03 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hertha BSC II or draw
48%
Hertha BSC II or SV Babelsberg 03
75%
Draw or SV Babelsberg 03
77%

Winning margin

Hertha BSC II wins by 2+
8%
SV Babelsberg 03 wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Hertha BSC II 1+ goals
63%
Hertha BSC II 2+ goals
26%
Hertha BSC II 3+ goals
8%
SV Babelsberg 03 1+ goals
81%
SV Babelsberg 03 2+ goals
49%
SV Babelsberg 03 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Hertha BSC II (draw refunded)
31%
SV Babelsberg 03 (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha BSC II at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

SV Babelsberg 03 away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha BSC II attack 0.79 + SV Babelsberg 03 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.00

SV Babelsberg 03 attack 1.56 + Hertha BSC II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hertha BSC II scores more
23%
level
25%
SV Babelsberg 03 scores more
52%

SV Babelsberg 03 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "SV Babelsberg 03 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hertha BSC II vs SV Babelsberg 03 — Match Preview

Hertha BSC II face SV Babelsberg 03 on December 13, 2020 in this Regionalliga - Nordost fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Hertha BSC II host SV Babelsberg 03 at Olympiapark-Amateurstadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.