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Herrera vs San Francisco FC — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Herrera
Herrera
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
San Francisco FC
San Francisco FC
11/13/2021Liga Panameña de FútbolLiga Panameña de Fútbol · Clausura - 15Estadio Los Milagros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Herrera37%
×Draw29%
San Francisco FC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Herrera
1.17
San Francisco FC
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 134 away

creates per match

Herrera
1.26
San Francisco FC
1.08

allows per match

Herrera
1.12
San Francisco FC
1.07

finishing

Herrera+0.00on par
San Francisco FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Herrera ↓

San Francisco FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Herrera or draw
66%
Herrera or San Francisco FC
71%
Draw or San Francisco FC
63%

Winning margin

Herrera wins by 2+
16%
San Francisco FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Herrera 1+ goals
69%
Herrera 2+ goals
33%
Herrera 3+ goals
11%
San Francisco FC 1+ goals
67%
San Francisco FC 2+ goals
30%
San Francisco FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Herrera (draw refunded)
52%
San Francisco FC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Herrera at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.12 · 91 matches

San Francisco FC away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.07 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Herrera attack 1.26 + San Francisco FC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.17

San Francisco FC attack 1.08 + Herrera defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Herrera scores more
37%
level
29%
San Francisco FC scores more
34%

Herrera at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Herrera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Panameña de Fútbol: Herrera 2–1 San Francisco FC

Herrera beat San Francisco FC 2-1 in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on November 13, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Los Milagros in Chitre.