Herrera 0–2 Plaza Amador: Result & Stats

Herrera

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Plaza Amador

10/9/2021

Liga Panameña de Fútbol · Clausura - 10Estadio Los Milagros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Herrera33%

×Draw28%

Plaza Amador38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HerreraExpected goals in this matchPlaza Amador

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.20

Herrera

1.10

Plaza Amador

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 137 away

1.26

creates per match

1.27

1.12

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Herrera

1.26

Plaza Amador

1.27

allows per match

Herrera

1.12

Plaza Amador

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Herrera+0.00on par

Plaza Amador+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Herrera ↓

Plaza Amador →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Herrera or draw

62%

Herrera or Plaza Amador

72%

Draw or Plaza Amador

67%

Winning margin

Herrera wins by 2+

13%

Plaza Amador wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Herrera 1+ goals

67%

Herrera 2+ goals

30%

Herrera 3+ goals

10%

Plaza Amador 1+ goals

70%

Plaza Amador 2+ goals

34%

Plaza Amador 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Herrera (draw refunded)

47%

Plaza Amador (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Herrera at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.12 · 91 matches

Plaza Amador away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.95 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Herrera attack 1.26 + Plaza Amador defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.10

Plaza Amador attack 1.27 + Herrera defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Herrera scores more

33%

level

28%

Plaza Amador scores more

38%

Plaza Amador at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Plaza Amador will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff