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Herrera vs Independiente de La Chorrera — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Herrera
Herrera
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Independiente de La Chorrera
Independiente de La Chorrera
10/24/2021Liga Panameña de FútbolLiga Panameña de Fútbol · Clausura - 12Estadio Los Milagros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Herrera35%
×Draw27%
Independiente de La Chorrera38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Herrera
1.18
Independiente de La Chorrera
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 129 away

creates per match

Herrera
1.26
Independiente de La Chorrera
1.37

allows per match

Herrera
1.12
Independiente de La Chorrera
1.10

finishing

Herrera+0.00on par
Independiente de La Chorrera+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Herrera ↓

Independiente de La Chorrera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Herrera or draw
62%
Herrera or Independiente de La Chorrera
73%
Draw or Independiente de La Chorrera
65%

Winning margin

Herrera wins by 2+
14%
Independiente de La Chorrera wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Herrera 1+ goals
69%
Herrera 2+ goals
33%
Herrera 3+ goals
12%
Independiente de La Chorrera 1+ goals
71%
Independiente de La Chorrera 2+ goals
36%
Independiente de La Chorrera 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Herrera (draw refunded)
48%
Independiente de La Chorrera (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Herrera at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.12 · 91 matches

Independiente de La Chorrera away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.10 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Herrera attack 1.26 + Independiente de La Chorrera defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.18

Independiente de La Chorrera attack 1.37 + Herrera defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Herrera scores more
35%
level
27%
Independiente de La Chorrera scores more
38%

Independiente de La Chorrera at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Independiente de La Chorrera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Herrera vs Independiente de La Chorrera

Herrera beat Independiente de La Chorrera 2-1 in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on October 24, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Los Milagros in Chitre.