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Herentals vs Yadah — Premier Soccer League 2026

Herentals
Herentals
FT
2 – 2
Yadah
Yadah
4/14/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 3Rufaro Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Herentals46%
×Draw29%
Yadah24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Herentals
1.25
Yadah
0.82

Herentals creates 52% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 85 away

creates per match

Herentals
1.17
Yadah
0.82

allows per match

Herentals
0.83
Yadah
1.34

finishing

Herentals+0.00on par
Yadah+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Herentals ↓

Yadah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Herentals or draw
76%
Herentals or Yadah
71%
Draw or Yadah
54%

Winning margin

Herentals wins by 2+
21%
Yadah wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Herentals 1+ goals
71%
Herentals 2+ goals
36%
Herentals 3+ goals
13%
Yadah 1+ goals
56%
Yadah 2+ goals
20%
Yadah 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Herentals (draw refunded)
66%
Yadah (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Herentals at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 96 matches

Yadah away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.34 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Herentals attack 1.17 + Yadah defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Yadah attack 0.82 + Herentals defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Herentals scores more
46%
level
29%
Yadah scores more
24%

Herentals at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Herentals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Herentals vs Yadah

Herentals and Yadah drew 2-2 in Premier Soccer League on April 14, 2019.

The match was played at Rufaro Stadium in Harare.