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Hércules vs Villarreal II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Hércules
Hércules
Preview
16:00
Villarreal II
Villarreal II
11/15/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 12
42%
Hércules
model favours
42%28%30%

Villarreal II have won 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Hércules42%
×Draw28%
Villarreal II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hércules
1.26
Villarreal II
1.01

Hércules creates 25% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 57 away

creates per match

Hércules
1.45
Villarreal II
1.19

allows per match

Hércules
0.84
Villarreal II
1.07

finishing

Hércules+0.00on par
Villarreal II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hércules ↓

Villarreal II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hércules or draw
70%
Hércules or Villarreal II
72%
Draw or Villarreal II
58%

Winning margin

Hércules wins by 2+
19%
Villarreal II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hércules 1+ goals
72%
Hércules 2+ goals
36%
Hércules 3+ goals
13%
Villarreal II 1+ goals
64%
Villarreal II 2+ goals
27%
Villarreal II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Hércules (draw refunded)
59%
Villarreal II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hércules at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.84 · 38 matches

Villarreal II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hércules attack 1.45 + Villarreal II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.26

Villarreal II attack 1.19 + Hércules defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hércules scores more
42%
level
28%
Villarreal II scores more
30%

Hércules at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hércules will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Hércules raise their game against the top half — 37% wins vs the upper half, only 34% vs the lower

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Hércules
DWWLW
II
LWDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hércules face Villarreal II (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 returns with Hércules hosting Villarreal II. Match starts November 15, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.