Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hércules vs Real Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Hércules
Hércules
Preview
15:00
Real Madrid II
Real Madrid II
4/25/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 34
47%
Hércules
model favours
47%28%25%
1–0
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Hércules47%
×Draw28%
Real Madrid II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hércules
1.36
Real Madrid II
0.91

Hércules creates 49% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 57 away

creates per match

Hércules
1.45
Real Madrid II
0.98

allows per match

Hércules
0.84
Real Madrid II
1.28

finishing

Hércules+0.00on par
Real Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hércules ↓

Real Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hércules or draw
75%
Hércules or Real Madrid II
72%
Draw or Real Madrid II
53%

Winning margin

Hércules wins by 2+
22%
Real Madrid II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hércules 1+ goals
74%
Hércules 2+ goals
39%
Hércules 3+ goals
16%
Real Madrid II 1+ goals
60%
Real Madrid II 2+ goals
23%
Real Madrid II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Hércules (draw refunded)
65%
Real Madrid II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hércules at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.84 · 38 matches

Real Madrid II away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.28 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hércules attack 1.45 + Real Madrid II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.36

Real Madrid II attack 0.98 + Hércules defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hércules scores more
47%
level
28%
Real Madrid II scores more
25%

Hércules at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hércules will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Hércules
DWWLW
II
LWDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hércules vs Real Madrid II — Match Preview

Hércules face Real Madrid II on April 25, 2027 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.