Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hércules II vs Atzeneta — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Hércules II
Hércules II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atzeneta
Atzeneta
11/9/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 12Campo de Fútbol Divina Pastora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Hércules II33%
×Draw30%
Atzeneta37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hércules II
1.00
Atzeneta
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 98 away

creates per match

Hércules II
1.12
Atzeneta
1.11

allows per match

Hércules II
1.06
Atzeneta
0.87

finishing

Hércules II+0.00on par
Atzeneta+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hércules II ↓

Atzeneta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Hércules II or draw
63%
Hércules II or Atzeneta
70%
Draw or Atzeneta
67%

Winning margin

Hércules II wins by 2+
12%
Atzeneta wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hércules II 1+ goals
63%
Hércules II 2+ goals
26%
Hércules II 3+ goals
8%
Atzeneta 1+ goals
66%
Atzeneta 2+ goals
29%
Atzeneta 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hércules II (draw refunded)
47%
Atzeneta (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hércules II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.06 · 78 matches

Atzeneta away — creates 1.11, concedes 0.87 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hércules II attack 1.12 + Atzeneta defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.00

Atzeneta attack 1.11 + Hércules II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hércules II scores more
33%
level
30%
Atzeneta scores more
37%

Atzeneta at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Atzeneta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Hércules II 0–1 Atzeneta

Atzeneta beat Hércules II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Divina Pastora in Alacant.