Herbania 3–1 Villa Santa Brígida: Result & Stats

Herbania

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Villa Santa Brígida

11/28/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 14Estadio Municipal de Los Pozos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Herbania44%

×Draw27%

Villa Santa Brígida29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HerbaniaExpected goals in this matchVilla Santa Brígida

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.06

Herbania

1.39

Villa Santa Brígida

1.06

Herbania creates 31% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 109 away

1.27

creates per match

0.96

1.16

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Herbania

1.27

Villa Santa Brígida

0.96

allows per match

Herbania

1.16

Villa Santa Brígida

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Herbania+0.00on par

Villa Santa Brígida+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Herbania ↓

Villa Santa Brígida →

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Herbania or draw

71%

Herbania or Villa Santa Brígida

73%

Draw or Villa Santa Brígida

56%

Winning margin

Herbania wins by 2+

21%

Villa Santa Brígida wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Herbania 1+ goals

75%

Herbania 2+ goals

40%

Herbania 3+ goals

16%

Villa Santa Brígida 1+ goals

65%

Villa Santa Brígida 2+ goals

29%

Villa Santa Brígida 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Herbania (draw refunded)

61%

Villa Santa Brígida (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Herbania at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.16 · 67 matches

Villa Santa Brígida away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.51 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Herbania attack 1.27 + Villa Santa Brígida defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.39

Villa Santa Brígida attack 0.96 + Herbania defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Herbania scores more

44%

level

27%

Villa Santa Brígida scores more

29%

Herbania at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Herbania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Herbania vs Villa Santa Brígida

Herbania beat Villa Santa Brígida 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on November 28, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Los Pozos in Puerto Rosario.

Herbania vs Villa Santa Brígida — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Herbania vs Villa Santa Brígida