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Heracles vs Excelsior — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Heracles
Heracles
Preview
17:00
Excelsior
Excelsior
7/24/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
Big match
55%
Heracles
model favours
55%22%23%

Excelsior score first in only 3% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Heracles55%
×Draw22%
Excelsior23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heracles
1.94
Excelsior
1.19

Heracles creates 63% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

creates per match

Heracles
1.80
Excelsior
1.58

allows per match

Heracles
0.80
Excelsior
2.08

finishing

Heracles+0.00on par
Excelsior+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heracles ↓

Excelsior →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Heracles or draw
77%
Heracles or Excelsior
78%
Draw or Excelsior
45%

Winning margin

Heracles wins by 2+
32%
Excelsior wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Heracles 1+ goals
86%
Heracles 2+ goals
58%
Heracles 3+ goals
30%
Excelsior 1+ goals
70%
Excelsior 2+ goals
33%
Excelsior 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Heracles (draw refunded)
70%
Excelsior (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heracles at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Excelsior away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heracles attack 1.80 + Excelsior defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.94

Excelsior attack 1.58 + Heracles defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Heracles scores more
55%
level
22%
Excelsior scores more
23%

Heracles at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Heracles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Excelsior have won 6 in a row
  • Excelsior have scored in 7 games running
  • Their last 8 meetings averaged 4 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Heracles
WLLLL
Excelsior
WWWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Heracles vs Excelsior — Match Preview

Heracles face Excelsior on July 24, 2026 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.