Hennef 05 4–0 Freialdenhoven: Result & Stats

Hennef 05

FT

4 – 0

Freialdenhoven

11/28/2021

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 16Stadion im Sportzentrum Hennef

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hennef 0542%

×Draw23%

Freialdenhoven35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hennef 05Expected goals in this matchFreialdenhoven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.57

Hennef 05

1.73

Freialdenhoven

1.57

Hennef 05 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 51 away

1.79

creates per match

1.75

1.39

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Hennef 05

1.79

Freialdenhoven

1.75

allows per match

Hennef 05

1.39

Freialdenhoven

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hennef 05+0.00on par

Freialdenhoven+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hennef 05 ↓

Freialdenhoven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Hennef 05 or draw

65%

Hennef 05 or Freialdenhoven

77%

Draw or Freialdenhoven

58%

Winning margin

Hennef 05 wins by 2+

22%

Freialdenhoven wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Hennef 05 1+ goals

82%

Hennef 05 2+ goals

52%

Hennef 05 3+ goals

25%

Freialdenhoven 1+ goals

79%

Freialdenhoven 2+ goals

46%

Freialdenhoven 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Hennef 05 (draw refunded)

54%

Freialdenhoven (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hennef 05 at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.39 · 80 matches

Freialdenhoven away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.67 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hennef 05 attack 1.79 + Freialdenhoven defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.73

Freialdenhoven attack 1.75 + Hennef 05 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hennef 05 scores more

42%

level

23%

Freialdenhoven scores more

35%

Hennef 05 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hennef 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff