Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC — Super League 2018

Henan Jianye
Henan Jianye
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Shenzhen Ruby FC
4/21/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 1Huadu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Henan Jianye54%
×Draw23%
Shenzhen Ruby FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Henan Jianye
1.86
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.13

Henan Jianye creates 65% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 67 away

creates per match

Henan Jianye
1.48
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.03

allows per match

Henan Jianye
1.22
Shenzhen Ruby FC
2.25

finishing

Henan Jianye+0.00on par
Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Henan Jianye ↓

Shenzhen Ruby FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Henan Jianye or draw
77%
Henan Jianye or Shenzhen Ruby FC
77%
Draw or Shenzhen Ruby FC
46%

Winning margin

Henan Jianye wins by 2+
31%
Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Henan Jianye 1+ goals
84%
Henan Jianye 2+ goals
55%
Henan Jianye 3+ goals
28%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals
68%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals
31%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Henan Jianye (draw refunded)
70%
Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Henan Jianye at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.22 · 120 matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Henan Jianye attack 1.48 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.86

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.03 + Henan Jianye defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Henan Jianye scores more
54%
level
23%
Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more
23%

Henan Jianye at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Henan Jianye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC

Shenzhen Ruby FC beat Henan Jianye 2-1 in Super League on April 21, 2021.

The match was played at Huadu Stadium in Guongzhou.