Henan Jianye 1–3 Shenzhen Ruby FC: Result & Stats

Henan Jianye

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Shenzhen Ruby FC

C. Bassogog 75'

Gao Lin 28'

J. Mary 10', 4'

9/14/2020

Super League · Round 11Dalian Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Henan Jianye55%

×Draw23%

Shenzhen Ruby FC22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Henan JianyeExpected goals in this matchShenzhen Ruby FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.12

Henan Jianye

1.88

Shenzhen Ruby FC

1.12

Henan Jianye creates 68% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 67 away

1.51

creates per match

1.03

1.21

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Henan Jianye

1.51

Shenzhen Ruby FC

1.03

allows per match

Henan Jianye

1.21

Shenzhen Ruby FC

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Henan Jianye+0.00on par

Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Henan Jianye ↓

Shenzhen Ruby FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Henan Jianye or draw

78%

Henan Jianye or Shenzhen Ruby FC

77%

Draw or Shenzhen Ruby FC

45%

Winning margin

Henan Jianye wins by 2+

32%

Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Henan Jianye 1+ goals

85%

Henan Jianye 2+ goals

56%

Henan Jianye 3+ goals

29%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals

67%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals

31%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Henan Jianye (draw refunded)

71%

Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Henan Jianye at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.21 · 121 matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Henan Jianye attack 1.51 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.88

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.03 + Henan Jianye defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Henan Jianye scores more

55%

level

23%

Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more

22%

Henan Jianye at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Henan Jianye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

Gao Lin

Shenzhen Ruby FC · F

8.3

Match Events

4'

J. Mary↳ Gao Lin

10'

12'

26'

28'

43'

45'

46'

46'

Abduwal Ablet← Yang Kuo

46'

Du Changjie← Song Boxuan

65'

Zheng Dalun← H. Preciado

65'

Mi Haolun← Jiang Zhipeng

75'

Christian Bassogog

75'

C. Bassogog

78'

Zhao Ke

84'

Li Yuanyi← Dai Wai-Tsun

90'

Yuanyi Li

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HenanShenzhen

Overview

45%Possession55%

6Total Shots10

1Corners3

11Fouls19

Shots

6Total Shots10

2On Target5

3Off Target4

1Blocked1

4Inside Box8

2Outside Box2

Passing

45%Possession55%

355Total Passes431

274Accurate Passes350

77%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls19

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1