Henan Jianye 2–0 Guangzhou R&F: Result & Stats

Henan Jianye

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Guangzhou R&F

10/21/2018

Super League · Round 26Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Henan Jianye48%

×Draw24%

Guangzhou R&F28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Henan JianyeExpected goals in this matchGuangzhou R&F

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.19

Henan Jianye

1.65

Guangzhou R&F

1.19

Henan Jianye creates 39% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 70 away

1.48

creates per match

1.16

1.22

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Henan Jianye

1.48

Guangzhou R&F

1.16

allows per match

Henan Jianye

1.22

Guangzhou R&F

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Henan Jianye+0.00on par

Guangzhou R&F+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Henan Jianye ↓

Guangzhou R&F →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Henan Jianye or draw

72%

Henan Jianye or Guangzhou R&F

76%

Draw or Guangzhou R&F

52%

Winning margin

Henan Jianye wins by 2+

25%

Guangzhou R&F wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Henan Jianye 1+ goals

81%

Henan Jianye 2+ goals

49%

Henan Jianye 3+ goals

23%

Guangzhou R&F 1+ goals

70%

Guangzhou R&F 2+ goals

33%

Guangzhou R&F 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Henan Jianye (draw refunded)

64%

Guangzhou R&F (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Henan Jianye at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.22 · 120 matches

Guangzhou R&F away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.81 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Henan Jianye attack 1.48 + Guangzhou R&F defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.65

Guangzhou R&F attack 1.16 + Henan Jianye defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Henan Jianye scores more

48%

level

24%

Guangzhou R&F scores more

28%

Henan Jianye at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Henan Jianye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff