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Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing — FA Cup 2019

Henan Jianye
Henan Jianye
Preview
07:00
Dalian Zhixing
Dalian Zhixing
7/21/2026FA CupFA Cup · Round of 16Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium
55%
Dalian Zhixing
model favours
24%22%55%

Henan Jianye have scored in 8 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Henan Jianye24%
×Draw22%
Dalian Zhixing55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Henan Jianye
1.25
Dalian Zhixing
2.00

Dalian Zhixing creates 60% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Henan Jianye
1.50
Dalian Zhixing
2.33

allows per match

Henan Jianye
1.67
Dalian Zhixing
1.00

finishing

Henan Jianye+0.00on par
Dalian Zhixing+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Henan Jianye ↓

Dalian Zhixing →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Henan Jianye or draw
45%
Henan Jianye or Dalian Zhixing
78%
Draw or Dalian Zhixing
76%

Winning margin

Henan Jianye wins by 2+
10%
Dalian Zhixing wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Henan Jianye 1+ goals
71%
Henan Jianye 2+ goals
36%
Henan Jianye 3+ goals
13%
Dalian Zhixing 1+ goals
86%
Dalian Zhixing 2+ goals
59%
Dalian Zhixing 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Henan Jianye (draw refunded)
30%
Dalian Zhixing (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Henan Jianye at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Dalian Zhixing away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Henan Jianye attack 1.50 + Dalian Zhixing defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Dalian Zhixing attack 2.33 + Henan Jianye defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Henan Jianye scores more
24%
level
22%
Dalian Zhixing scores more
55%

Dalian Zhixing at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Dalian Zhixing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Jianye
LLWL
Zhixing
WLDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Henan Jianye host Dalian Zhixing

July 21, 2026: Henan Jianye take on Dalian Zhixing in FA Cup. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Henan Jianye host Dalian Zhixing at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.