Hemel Hempstead Town vs Tonbridge Angels

Hemel Hempstead Town

Preview

14:00

Tonbridge Angels

9/12/2026

League #51 · National League South - 9

53%

Tonbridge Angels

model favours

24%22%53%

Hemel Hempstead Town and Tonbridge Angels have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

60%

over 2.5 goals

60%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hemel Hempstead Town24%

×Draw22%

Tonbridge Angels53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hemel Hempstead TownExpected goals in this matchTonbridge Angels

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.90

Hemel Hempstead Town

1.21

Tonbridge Angels

1.90

Tonbridge Angels creates 57% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

1.43

creates per match

2.50

1.29

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Hemel Hempstead Town

1.43

Tonbridge Angels

2.50

allows per match

Hemel Hempstead Town

1.29

Tonbridge Angels

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hemel Hempstead Town+0.00on par

Tonbridge Angels+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hemel Hempstead Town ↓

Tonbridge Angels →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Hemel Hempstead Town or draw

47%

Hemel Hempstead Town or Tonbridge Angels

78%

Draw or Tonbridge Angels

76%

Winning margin

Hemel Hempstead Town wins by 2+

10%

Tonbridge Angels wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Hemel Hempstead Town 1+ goals

70%

Hemel Hempstead Town 2+ goals

34%

Hemel Hempstead Town 3+ goals

12%

Tonbridge Angels 1+ goals

85%

Tonbridge Angels 2+ goals

56%

Tonbridge Angels 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Hemel Hempstead Town (draw refunded)

31%

Tonbridge Angels (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hemel Hempstead Town at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Tonbridge Angels away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hemel Hempstead Town attack 1.43 + Tonbridge Angels defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Tonbridge Angels attack 2.50 + Hemel Hempstead Town defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hemel Hempstead Town scores more

24%

level

22%

Tonbridge Angels scores more

53%

Tonbridge Angels at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tonbridge Angels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

Town

LLDWW

Angels

LWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff